Intelligence and Grand Strategy

Elegant strategies can be constructed without reference to intelligence but persuading policymakers to implement them without knowing what intelligence might have to say about their likely efficacy and unintended consequences would be exceedingly difficult. Intelligence-derived information and insights should not dictate the goals of grand strategy, but they should inform decisions about what to do, how to do it, and what to look for in order to assess how well or badly the strategy is working. T he relationship between intelligence and grand strategy is similar to the relationship of intelligence to policymaking. Grand strategists, like policymakers, can—and often do—formulate plans and develop policies without seeking or heeding information and insights from intelligence analysts. History is replete with examples of smart people who developed compelling theories of international relations and/or effective strategies to protect and pursue the interests of their countries without reliance on inputs from spies, satellites, analysts, or other accoutrements of intelligence. 1 For general, but insightful discussions of grand strategy, see, for example, Walter A. McDougall, ‘‘Can the United States Do Grand Strategy?’’ Orbis, Spring 2010, pp. 165–184; John Lewis Gaddis, ‘‘What Is Grand Strategy?’’ Karl Von Der Heyden Distinguished Lecture, Duke University, February 26, 2008 at http://www.duke.edu/web/agsp/grandstrategypaper.pdf; and Peter Feaver, ‘‘What is grand strategy and why do we need it?’’ posted to the Foreign Policy Shadow Government Blog on April 8, 2009 at http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/ 08/what_is_grand_strategy_and_why_do_we_need_it. See also, Richard H. Immerman, ‘‘Intelligence and Strategy: Historicizing Psychology, Policy, and Politics,’’ Diplomatic History, vol. 32, no. 1 (January 2008), pp. 1–23. 2 See, for example, Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994), especially the sections on Bismarck and Stalin; and Warren Zimmermann, The First Great Triumph: How Five Americans Made Their Country a World Power (New York: Farrar, Straus